Surkhon 2–0 Buxoro: Result & Stats | Super League

Surkhon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buxoro

H. Sherbotayev 90'

S. Nimely 50'

3/31/2023

Super League · Round 4Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Surkhon49%

×Draw27%

Buxoro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchBuxoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.88

Surkhon

1.39

Buxoro

0.88

Surkhon creates 58% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

0.99

creates per match

0.66

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Surkhon

0.99

Buxoro

0.66

allows per match

Surkhon

1.09

Buxoro

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Buxoro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Buxoro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

76%

Surkhon or Buxoro

73%

Draw or Buxoro

51%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

24%

Buxoro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

75%

Surkhon 2+ goals

40%

Surkhon 3+ goals

16%

Buxoro 1+ goals

59%

Buxoro 2+ goals

22%

Buxoro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

67%

Buxoro (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Buxoro away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Buxoro defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Buxoro attack 0.66 + Surkhon defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Surkhon scores more

49%

level

27%

Buxoro scores more

24%

Surkhon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

S. Sultanmuradov

46'

A. Otakhonov← O. Jo‘raboev

46'

D. Juraev← V. Nihaev

46'

R. Abdukhamidov← T. Ismoilov

50'

S. Nimely

57'

R. Ahmedov← I. Toshpo‘latov

67'

69'

A. Jumayev← A. Karimov

70'

A. Potapov

74'

B. Askarov

74'

R. Akhmedov

77'

T. Dzhamalutdinov

87'

K. Saidazimov← N. Khasanov

90'

H. Sherbotayev

Surkhon

Buxoro

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Arslanov

69'▲A. Jumayev←▼A. Karimov

87'▲K. Saidazimov←▼N. Khasanov

Surkhon substitutes

JumayevSaidazimovFiliposyanPirmuhamedovSokolMerganovRamazonovJorayevBobomurodov

Manager: K. Fuzaylov

46'▲A. Otakhonov←▼O. Jo‘raboev

46'▲D. Juraev←▼V. Nihaev

46'▲R. Abdukhamidov←▼T. Ismoilov

57'▲R. Ahmedov←▼I. Toshpo‘latov

Buxoro substitutes

OtakhonovJuraevAbdukhamidovAhmedovBegimkulovZakiyevJumaevKabuldjanovMuhammadiyev