Surin 2–0 Ubonkids City: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Surin

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ubonkids City

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundSri-Narong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Surin66%

×Draw15%

Ubonkids City18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurinExpected goals in this matchUbonkids City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

1.83

Surin

3.42

Ubonkids City

1.83

Surin creates 87% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.83

creates per match

2.50

1.17

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Surin

2.83

Ubonkids City

2.50

allows per match

Surin

1.17

Ubonkids City

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surin+0.00on par

Ubonkids City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin ↓

Ubonkids City →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Surin or draw

82%

Surin or Ubonkids City

85%

Draw or Ubonkids City

34%

Winning margin

Surin wins by 2+

48%

Ubonkids City wins by 2+

Team goals

Surin 1+ goals

97%

Surin 2+ goals

85%

Surin 3+ goals

64%

Ubonkids City 1+ goals

84%

Ubonkids City 2+ goals

54%

Ubonkids City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Surin (draw refunded)

78%

Ubonkids City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Ubonkids City away — creates 2.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surin attack 2.83 + Ubonkids City defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.42

Ubonkids City attack 2.50 + Surin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Surin scores more

66%

level

15%

Ubonkids City scores more

18%

Surin at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Surin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff