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Surin vs Thonburi Forest — FA Cup 2018

Surin
Surin
FT
5 – 0
Thonburi Forest
Thonburi Forest
9/28/2022FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying RoundRanong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Surin94%
×Draw5%
Thonburi Forest2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surin
4.42
Thonburi Forest
0.58

Surin creates 662% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Surin
2.83
Thonburi Forest
0.00

allows per match

Surin
1.17
Thonburi Forest
6.00

finishing

Surin+0.00on par
Thonburi Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin ↓

Thonburi Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Surin or draw
98%
Surin or Thonburi Forest
95%
Draw or Thonburi Forest
6%

Winning margin

Surin wins by 2+
83%
Thonburi Forest wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Surin 1+ goals
99%
Surin 2+ goals
92%
Surin 3+ goals
78%
Thonburi Forest 1+ goals
44%
Thonburi Forest 2+ goals
12%
Thonburi Forest 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Surin (draw refunded)
98%
Thonburi Forest (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Thonburi Forest away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surin attack 2.83 + Thonburi Forest defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.42

Thonburi Forest attack 0.00 + Surin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Surin scores more
94%
level
5%
Thonburi Forest scores more
2%

Surin at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Surin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surin 5–0 Thonburi Forest

Surin beat Thonburi Forest 5-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.