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Surin vs Chiangrai United — FA Cup 2018

Surin
Surinadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
12/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Sri-Narong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Surin40%
×Draw21%
Chiangrai United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surin
2.07
Chiangrai United
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Surin
2.83
Chiangrai United
3.00

allows per match

Surin
1.17
Chiangrai United
1.31

finishing

Surin+0.00on par
Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin ↓

Chiangrai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Surin or draw
60%
Surin or Chiangrai United
79%
Draw or Chiangrai United
60%

Winning margin

Surin wins by 2+
22%
Chiangrai United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Surin 1+ goals
87%
Surin 2+ goals
61%
Surin 3+ goals
34%
Chiangrai United 1+ goals
87%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
61%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Surin (draw refunded)
50%
Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surin attack 2.83 + Chiangrai United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.07

Chiangrai United attack 3.00 + Surin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Surin scores more
40%
level
21%
Chiangrai United scores more
40%

Surin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Surin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surin vs Chiangrai United

Surin beat Chiangrai United 2-0 in FA Cup on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sri-Narong Stadium in Surin, Muang Surin.