Surin 1–4 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Surin

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

BG Pathum United

4/9/2025

FA Cup · Round of 16Sri-Narong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Surin42%

×Draw22%

BG Pathum United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurinExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.64

Surin

1.81

BG Pathum United

1.64

Surin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.83

creates per match

2.10

1.17

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Surin

2.83

BG Pathum United

2.10

allows per match

Surin

1.17

BG Pathum United

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surin+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin ↓

BG Pathum United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Surin or draw

65%

Surin or BG Pathum United

78%

Draw or BG Pathum United

58%

Winning margin

Surin wins by 2+

22%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Surin 1+ goals

84%

Surin 2+ goals

54%

Surin 3+ goals

27%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

81%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

49%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Surin (draw refunded)

54%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surin attack 2.83 + BG Pathum United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

BG Pathum United attack 2.10 + Surin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Surin scores more

42%

level

22%

BG Pathum United scores more

35%

Surin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Surin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff