Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Surin Sugar vs Ubonkids City — FA Cup 2018

Surin Sugar
Surin Sugar
FT
2 – 9
HT: 1 – 6
Ubonkids City
Ubonkids Cityadvanced
10/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Surin Sugar35%
×Draw18%
Ubonkids City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surin Sugar
2.67
Ubonkids City
3.08

Ubonkids City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Surin Sugar
1.33
Ubonkids City
2.50

allows per match

Surin Sugar
3.67
Ubonkids City
4.00

finishing

Surin Sugar+0.00on par
Ubonkids City+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin Sugar ↓

Ubonkids City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Surin Sugar or draw
53%
Surin Sugar or Ubonkids City
82%
Draw or Ubonkids City
65%

Winning margin

Surin Sugar wins by 2+
20%
Ubonkids City wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Surin Sugar 1+ goals
93%
Surin Sugar 2+ goals
74%
Surin Sugar 3+ goals
49%
Ubonkids City 1+ goals
95%
Ubonkids City 2+ goals
81%
Ubonkids City 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)
43%
Ubonkids City (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surin Sugar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Ubonkids City away — creates 2.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surin Sugar attack 1.33 + Ubonkids City defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ubonkids City attack 2.50 + Surin Sugar defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Surin Sugar scores more
35%
level
18%
Ubonkids City scores more
47%

Ubonkids City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ubonkids City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surin Sugar 2–9 Ubonkids City

Ubonkids City beat Surin Sugar 9-2 in FA Cup on October 30, 2025.