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Surin Sugar vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — FA Cup 2018

Surin Sugar
Surin Sugar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FCadvanced
11/30/2022FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Rajamangala University of Technology Esarn Surin Campus Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Surin Sugar9%
×Draw14%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surin Sugar
0.92
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.88

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 213% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Surin Sugar
1.33
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.10

allows per match

Surin Sugar
3.67
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.50

finishing

Surin Sugar+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin Sugar ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Surin Sugar or draw
23%
Surin Sugar or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
86%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
91%

Winning margin

Surin Sugar wins by 2+
3%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Surin Sugar 1+ goals
60%
Surin Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Surin Sugar 3+ goals
7%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
94%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
78%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)
11%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surin Sugar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surin Sugar attack 1.33 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.10 + Surin Sugar defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Surin Sugar scores more
9%
level
14%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
77%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surin Sugar 0–4 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Surin Sugar 4-0 in FA Cup on November 30, 2022.

The match was played at Rajamangala University of Technology Esarn Surin Campus Stadium in Surin.