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Surin Sugar vs Chainat United — FA Cup 2018

Surin Sugar
Surin Sugar
FT
1 – 3
Chainat United
Chainat United
4/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Surin Sugar28%
×Draw20%
Chainat United52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surin Sugar
1.67
Chainat United
2.33

Chainat United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Surin Sugar
1.33
Chainat United
1.00

allows per match

Surin Sugar
3.67
Chainat United
2.00

finishing

Surin Sugar+0.00on par
Chainat United+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin Sugar ↓

Chainat United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Surin Sugar or draw
48%
Surin Sugar or Chainat United
80%
Draw or Chainat United
72%

Winning margin

Surin Sugar wins by 2+
13%
Chainat United wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Surin Sugar 1+ goals
81%
Surin Sugar 2+ goals
50%
Surin Sugar 3+ goals
23%
Chainat United 1+ goals
90%
Chainat United 2+ goals
67%
Chainat United 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)
35%
Chainat United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surin Sugar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Chainat United away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surin Sugar attack 1.33 + Chainat United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chainat United attack 1.00 + Surin Sugar defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Surin Sugar scores more
28%
level
20%
Chainat United scores more
52%

Chainat United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chainat United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surin Sugar 1–3 Chainat United

Chainat United beat Surin Sugar 3-1 in FA Cup on April 4, 2018.