Surin Sugar 1–5 Cha Choeng Sao: Result & Stats

Surin Sugar

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Cha Choeng Sao

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundRajamangala University of Technology Esarn Surin Campus Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Surin Sugar36%

×Draw20%

Cha Choeng Sao45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surin SugarExpected goals in this matchCha Choeng Sao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.33

Surin Sugar

2.08

Cha Choeng Sao

2.33

Cha Choeng Sao creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

3.67

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Surin Sugar

1.33

Cha Choeng Sao

1.00

allows per match

Surin Sugar

3.67

Cha Choeng Sao

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surin Sugar+0.00on par

Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surin Sugar ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Surin Sugar or draw

55%

Surin Sugar or Cha Choeng Sao

80%

Draw or Cha Choeng Sao

64%

Winning margin

Surin Sugar wins by 2+

19%

Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Surin Sugar 1+ goals

87%

Surin Sugar 2+ goals

61%

Surin Sugar 3+ goals

34%

Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals

90%

Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals

67%

Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)

44%

Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surin Sugar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surin Sugar attack 1.33 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.00 + Surin Sugar defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Surin Sugar scores more

36%

level

20%

Cha Choeng Sao scores more

45%

Cha Choeng Sao at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cha Choeng Sao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surin Sugar 1–5 Cha Choeng Sao

Cha Choeng Sao beat Surin Sugar 5-1 in FA Cup on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Rajamangala University of Technology Esarn Surin Campus Stadium in Surin.

Surin Sugar vs Cha Choeng Sao — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Surin Sugar 1–5 Cha Choeng Sao