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Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
FT
2 – 2
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
5/14/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 10Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo59%
×Draw19%
Logan Lightning22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.50
Logan Lightning
1.50

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 44 away

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.92
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
1.17
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw
78%
Surfers Paradise Apollo or Logan Lightning
81%
Draw or Logan Lightning
41%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
38%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
92%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
71%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
45%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
78%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
44%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
73%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
59%
level
19%
Logan Lightning scores more
22%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Surfers Paradise Apollo 2–2 Logan Lightning

Surfers Paradise Apollo and Logan Lightning drew 2-2 in Queensland Premier League on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 2 in Gold Coast.