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Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apolloadvanced
AET
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
9/10/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Semi-finalsGold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo52%
×Draw20%
Brisbane Strikers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.37
Brisbane Strikers
1.73

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 55 away

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.92
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
1.17
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw
72%
Surfers Paradise Apollo or Brisbane Strikers
80%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
48%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
32%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
91%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
68%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
42%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
82%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
52%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
65%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
52%
level
20%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
28%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Brisbane Strikers

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Brisbane Strikers 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.