Surat Thani City 0–0 Udon United: Result & Stats

Surat Thani City

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Udon United

12/20/2023

FA Cup · Round of 32Wiang Sa Subdistrict Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Surat Thani City72%

×Draw16%

Udon United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surat Thani CityExpected goals in this matchUdon United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.07

Surat Thani City

2.75

Udon United

1.07

Surat Thani City creates 157% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.75

1.40

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Surat Thani City

3.00

Udon United

0.75

allows per match

Surat Thani City

1.40

Udon United

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surat Thani City+0.00on par

Udon United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surat Thani City ↓

Udon United →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Surat Thani City or draw

88%

Surat Thani City or Udon United

84%

Draw or Udon United

28%

Winning margin

Surat Thani City wins by 2+

51%

Udon United wins by 2+

Team goals

Surat Thani City 1+ goals

93%

Surat Thani City 2+ goals

75%

Surat Thani City 3+ goals

51%

Udon United 1+ goals

66%

Udon United 2+ goals

29%

Udon United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Surat Thani City (draw refunded)

85%

Udon United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surat Thani City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Udon United away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surat Thani City attack 3.00 + Udon United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Udon United attack 0.75 + Surat Thani City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Surat Thani City scores more

72%

level

16%

Udon United scores more

12%

Surat Thani City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Surat Thani City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff