Surat Thani City 1–1 Songkhla: Result & Stats

Surat Thani City

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Songkhla

9/30/2020

FA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Surat Thani City34%

×Draw20%

Songkhla46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surat Thani CityExpected goals in this matchSongkhla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.20

Surat Thani City

1.88

Songkhla

2.20

Songkhla creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

3.00

1.40

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Surat Thani City

3.00

Songkhla

3.00

allows per match

Surat Thani City

1.40

Songkhla

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surat Thani City+0.00on par

Songkhla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surat Thani City ↓

Songkhla →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Surat Thani City or draw

54%

Surat Thani City or Songkhla

80%

Draw or Songkhla

66%

Winning margin

Surat Thani City wins by 2+

17%

Songkhla wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Surat Thani City 1+ goals

85%

Surat Thani City 2+ goals

56%

Surat Thani City 3+ goals

29%

Songkhla 1+ goals

89%

Songkhla 2+ goals

64%

Songkhla 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Surat Thani City (draw refunded)

43%

Songkhla (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surat Thani City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Songkhla away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surat Thani City attack 3.00 + Songkhla defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Songkhla attack 3.00 + Surat Thani City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Surat Thani City scores more

34%

level

20%

Songkhla scores more

46%

Songkhla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff