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Surat Thani City vs Nakhon Pathom — FA Cup 2018

Surat Thani City
Surat Thani City
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
5/1/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Surat Thani City51%
×Draw22%
Nakhon Pathom27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surat Thani City
2.00
Nakhon Pathom
1.42

Surat Thani City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Surat Thani City
3.00
Nakhon Pathom
1.43

allows per match

Surat Thani City
1.40
Nakhon Pathom
1.00

finishing

Surat Thani City+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surat Thani City ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Surat Thani City or draw
73%
Surat Thani City or Nakhon Pathom
78%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
49%

Winning margin

Surat Thani City wins by 2+
29%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Surat Thani City 1+ goals
86%
Surat Thani City 2+ goals
59%
Surat Thani City 3+ goals
32%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
76%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
41%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Surat Thani City (draw refunded)
65%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surat Thani City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surat Thani City attack 3.00 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Surat Thani City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Surat Thani City scores more
51%
level
22%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
27%

Surat Thani City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Surat Thani City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surat Thani City vs Nakhon Pathom

Surat Thani City and Nakhon Pathom drew 0-0 in FA Cup on May 1, 2019.