Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Surat Thani City vs Lamphun Warrior — FA Cup 2018

Surat Thani City
Surat Thani City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrioradvanced
Neto Santos 45' (pen)
P. Mlapa 65', 26'
T. Churok 59'
M. M. Lwin 45'
10/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Surat Thani City42%
×Draw22%
Lamphun Warrior36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surat Thani City
1.86
Lamphun Warrior
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Surat Thani City
3.00
Lamphun Warrior
2.00

allows per match

Surat Thani City
1.40
Lamphun Warrior
0.73

finishing

Surat Thani City+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surat Thani City ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Surat Thani City or draw
64%
Surat Thani City or Lamphun Warrior
78%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
58%

Winning margin

Surat Thani City wins by 2+
23%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Surat Thani City 1+ goals
84%
Surat Thani City 2+ goals
55%
Surat Thani City 3+ goals
28%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
82%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
51%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Surat Thani City (draw refunded)
54%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surat Thani City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surat Thani City attack 3.00 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.00 + Surat Thani City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Surat Thani City scores more
42%
level
22%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
36%

Surat Thani City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Surat Thani City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
P. Mlapa
45'
Neto SantosPenalty
45'
M. M. Lwin
59'
T. Churok
65'
P. Mlapa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Surat Thani City 1–4 Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Surat Thani City 4-1 in FA Cup on October 29, 2025.

Goals: P. Mlapa (26', 65'), Neto Santos (45' pen), M. M. Lwin (45'), T. Churok (59').