Surat Thani City 3–1 Huai Thalaeng United

Surat Thani City

3 – 1

Huai Thalaeng United

6/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Surat Thani City62%

×Draw18%

Huai Thalaeng United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surat Thani CityExpected goals in this matchHuai Thalaeng United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.36

Surat Thani City

2.50

Huai Thalaeng United

1.36

Surat Thani City creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Surat Thani City

3.00

Huai Thalaeng United

1.33

allows per match

Surat Thani City

1.40

Huai Thalaeng United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surat Thani City+0.00on par

Huai Thalaeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surat Thani City ↓

Huai Thalaeng United →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Surat Thani City or draw

80%

Surat Thani City or Huai Thalaeng United

82%

Draw or Huai Thalaeng United

38%

Winning margin

Surat Thani City wins by 2+

40%

Huai Thalaeng United wins by 2+

Team goals

Surat Thani City 1+ goals

92%

Surat Thani City 2+ goals

71%

Surat Thani City 3+ goals

45%

Huai Thalaeng United 1+ goals

74%

Huai Thalaeng United 2+ goals

39%

Huai Thalaeng United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Surat Thani City (draw refunded)

76%

Huai Thalaeng United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Surat Thani City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Huai Thalaeng United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Surat Thani City attack 3.00 + Huai Thalaeng United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Huai Thalaeng United attack 1.33 + Surat Thani City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Surat Thani City scores more

62%

level

18%

Huai Thalaeng United scores more

20%

Surat Thani City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Surat Thani City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff