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Sur vs Dhofar — Professional League 2019

Sur
Sur
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dhofar
Dhofar
2/6/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 15Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sur32%
×Draw29%
Dhofar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sur
1.05
Dhofar
1.18

Dhofar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 69 away

creates per match

Sur
1.19
Dhofar
1.07

allows per match

Sur
1.29
Dhofar
0.91

finishing

Sur+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sur ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sur or draw
61%
Sur or Dhofar
71%
Draw or Dhofar
68%

Winning margin

Sur wins by 2+
12%
Dhofar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sur 1+ goals
65%
Sur 2+ goals
28%
Sur 3+ goals
9%
Dhofar 1+ goals
69%
Dhofar 2+ goals
33%
Dhofar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sur (draw refunded)
45%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sur at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sur attack 1.19 + Dhofar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dhofar attack 1.07 + Sur defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sur scores more
32%
level
29%
Dhofar scores more
39%

Dhofar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sur 0 – 0 Dhofar

Sur and Dhofar drew 0-0 in Professional League on February 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.