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Sur vs Al Nasr — Professional League 2019

Sur
Sur
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Nasr
Al Nasr
10/20/2024Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 8Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sur33%
×Draw29%
Al Nasr38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sur
1.05
Al Nasr
1.16

Al Nasr creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sur
1.19
Al Nasr
1.03

allows per match

Sur
1.29
Al Nasr
0.91

finishing

Sur+0.00on par
Al Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sur ↓

Al Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sur or draw
62%
Sur or Al Nasr
71%
Draw or Al Nasr
67%

Winning margin

Sur wins by 2+
13%
Al Nasr wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sur 1+ goals
65%
Sur 2+ goals
28%
Sur 3+ goals
9%
Al Nasr 1+ goals
69%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
32%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sur (draw refunded)
46%
Al Nasr (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sur at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Al Nasr away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sur attack 1.19 + Al Nasr defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Nasr attack 1.03 + Sur defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sur scores more
33%
level
29%
Al Nasr scores more
38%

Al Nasr at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sur 1 – 0 Al Nasr

Sur beat Al Nasr 1-0 in Professional League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.