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Sur vs Al Bashair — Professional League 2019

Sur
Sur
FT
1 – 0
Al Bashair
Al Bashair
5/15/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 24Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sur46%
×Draw28%
Al Bashair26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sur
1.32
Al Bashair
0.92

Sur creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sur
1.19
Al Bashair
0.54

allows per match

Sur
1.29
Al Bashair
1.46

finishing

Sur+0.00on par
Al Bashair+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sur ↓

Al Bashair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sur or draw
74%
Sur or Al Bashair
72%
Draw or Al Bashair
54%

Winning margin

Sur wins by 2+
21%
Al Bashair wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sur 1+ goals
73%
Sur 2+ goals
38%
Sur 3+ goals
15%
Al Bashair 1+ goals
60%
Al Bashair 2+ goals
23%
Al Bashair 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sur (draw refunded)
64%
Al Bashair (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sur at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Al Bashair away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sur attack 1.19 + Al Bashair defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Bashair attack 0.54 + Sur defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sur scores more
46%
level
28%
Al Bashair scores more
26%

Sur at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sur vs Al Bashair

Sur beat Al Bashair 1-0 in Professional League on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.