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Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC — Canadian Premier League 2026

Supra du Quebec
Supra du Quebec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC
4/24/2026Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Group StageCEPSUM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Supra du Quebec35%
×Draw26%
HFX Wanderers FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supra du Quebec
1.27
HFX Wanderers FC
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 82 away

creates per match

Supra du Quebec
1.14
HFX Wanderers FC
0.98

allows per match

Supra du Quebec
1.71
HFX Wanderers FC
1.41

finishing

Supra du Quebec+0.00on par
HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supra du Quebec ↓

HFX Wanderers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Supra du Quebec or draw
62%
Supra du Quebec or HFX Wanderers FC
74%
Draw or HFX Wanderers FC
65%

Winning margin

Supra du Quebec wins by 2+
15%
HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Supra du Quebec 1+ goals
72%
Supra du Quebec 2+ goals
36%
Supra du Quebec 3+ goals
14%
HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals
74%
HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals
39%
HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Supra du Quebec (draw refunded)
48%
HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supra du Quebec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

HFX Wanderers FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supra du Quebec attack 1.14 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 + Supra du Quebec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Supra du Quebec scores more
35%
level
26%
HFX Wanderers FC scores more
38%

HFX Wanderers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HFX Wanderers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canadian Premier League: Supra du Quebec 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC

Supra du Quebec beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 in Canadian Premier League on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at CEPSUM Stadium.