Suphanburi 1–0 Royal Thai Fleet: Result & Stats

Suphanburi

1 – 0

Royal Thai Fleet

9/11/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundSuphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Suphanburi67%

×Draw17%

Royal Thai Fleet16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SuphanburiExpected goals in this matchRoyal Thai Fleet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.23

Suphanburi

2.62

Royal Thai Fleet

1.23

Suphanburi creates 113% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.64

creates per match

1.00

1.45

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Suphanburi

2.64

Royal Thai Fleet

1.00

allows per match

Suphanburi

1.45

Royal Thai Fleet

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par

Royal Thai Fleet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Royal Thai Fleet →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw

84%

Suphanburi or Royal Thai Fleet

83%

Draw or Royal Thai Fleet

33%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+

45%

Royal Thai Fleet wins by 2+

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals

93%

Suphanburi 2+ goals

73%

Suphanburi 3+ goals

48%

Royal Thai Fleet 1+ goals

71%

Royal Thai Fleet 2+ goals

35%

Royal Thai Fleet 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)

80%

Royal Thai Fleet (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Royal Thai Fleet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 2.64 + Royal Thai Fleet defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.62

Royal Thai Fleet attack 1.00 + Suphanburi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Suphanburi scores more

67%

level

17%

Royal Thai Fleet scores more

16%

Suphanburi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff