Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi — FA Cup 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
Ratchaburi
Ratchaburiadvanced
4/9/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Suphanburi40%
×Draw21%
Ratchaburi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.95
Ratchaburi
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
2.64
Ratchaburi
2.33

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Ratchaburi
1.25

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Ratchaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
62%
Suphanburi or Ratchaburi
79%
Draw or Ratchaburi
60%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
22%
Ratchaburi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
86%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
58%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
31%
Ratchaburi 1+ goals
85%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
56%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
51%
Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 2.64 + Ratchaburi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ratchaburi attack 2.33 + Suphanburi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Suphanburi scores more
40%
level
21%
Ratchaburi scores more
38%

Suphanburi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Suphanburi 1–7 Ratchaburi

Ratchaburi beat Suphanburi 7-1 in FA Cup on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.