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Suphanburi vs Mahasarakham United — Thai League 2 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
4/6/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Suphanburi41%
×Draw27%
Mahasarakham United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.33
Mahasarakham United
1.15

Suphanburi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Mahasarakham United
1.03

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.27
Mahasarakham United
1.21

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Mahasarakham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
68%
Suphanburi or Mahasarakham United
73%
Draw or Mahasarakham United
59%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
19%
Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
74%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
38%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
15%
Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
68%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
32%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
56%
Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mahasarakham United attack 1.03 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Suphanburi scores more
41%
level
27%
Mahasarakham United scores more
32%

Suphanburi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suphanburi vs Mahasarakham United

Mahasarakham United beat Suphanburi 2-0 in Thai League 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.