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Suphanburi vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/22/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Suphanburi51%
×Draw25%
Kasetsart FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.65
Kasetsart FC
1.07

Suphanburi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 132 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.27
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
75%
Suphanburi or Kasetsart FC
75%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
49%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
27%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
81%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
49%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
23%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
66%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
29%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
67%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suphanburi scores more
51%
level
25%
Kasetsart FC scores more
25%

Suphanburi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Suphanburi 4–0 Kasetsart FC

Suphanburi beat Kasetsart FC 4-0 in Thai League 2 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.