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Suphanburi vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
3/10/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Suphanburi41%
×Draw26%
Chiangmai FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.42
Chiangmai FC
1.23

Suphanburi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.27
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
67%
Suphanburi or Chiangmai FC
74%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
59%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
20%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
76%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
41%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
17%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
71%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
35%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
56%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Suphanburi scores more
41%
level
26%
Chiangmai FC scores more
33%

Suphanburi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suphanburi vs Chiangmai FC

Suphanburi beat Chiangmai FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.