Suphanburi 2–1 Chainat: Result & Stats

Suphanburi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chainat

2/10/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 24Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Suphanburi44%

×Draw26%

Chainat30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SuphanburiExpected goals in this matchChainat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

Suphanburi

1.47

Chainat

1.17

Suphanburi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 105 away

1.45

creates per match

1.07

1.27

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Suphanburi

1.45

Chainat

1.07

allows per match

Suphanburi

1.27

Chainat

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par

Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Chainat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw

70%

Suphanburi or Chainat

74%

Draw or Chainat

56%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+

21%

Chainat wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals

77%

Suphanburi 2+ goals

43%

Suphanburi 3+ goals

18%

Chainat 1+ goals

69%

Chainat 2+ goals

33%

Chainat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)

59%

Chainat (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chainat attack 1.07 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Suphanburi scores more

44%

level

26%

Chainat scores more

30%

Suphanburi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff