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Supersport United vs TS Galaxy — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TS Galaxy
TS Galaxy
4/6/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 18Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Supersport United45%
×Draw30%
TS Galaxy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
1.19
TS Galaxy
0.79

Supersport United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 90 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
TS Galaxy
0.76

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
TS Galaxy
1.13

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

TS Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
76%
Supersport United or TS Galaxy
70%
Draw or TS Galaxy
55%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
20%
TS Galaxy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
70%
Supersport United 2+ goals
33%
Supersport United 3+ goals
12%
TS Galaxy 1+ goals
55%
TS Galaxy 2+ goals
19%
TS Galaxy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
65%
TS Galaxy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Supersport United scores more
45%
level
30%
TS Galaxy scores more
24%

Supersport United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Supersport United 0–1 TS Galaxy

TS Galaxy beat Supersport United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.