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Supersport United vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
8/5/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Supersport United48%
×Draw30%
Richards Bay22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
1.23
Richards Bay
0.72

Supersport United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 63 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
78%
Supersport United or Richards Bay
70%
Draw or Richards Bay
52%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
22%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
71%
Supersport United 2+ goals
35%
Supersport United 3+ goals
13%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
51%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
16%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
69%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Supersport United scores more
48%
level
30%
Richards Bay scores more
22%

Supersport United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Supersport United 2–0 Richards Bay

Supersport United beat Richards Bay 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.