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Supersport United vs Polokwane City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Polokwane City
Polokwane City
1/17/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Supersport United45%
×Draw31%
Polokwane City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
1.15
Polokwane City
0.75

Supersport United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
Polokwane City
0.68

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
Polokwane City
1.05

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Polokwane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
76%
Supersport United or Polokwane City
69%
Draw or Polokwane City
55%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
19%
Polokwane City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
68%
Supersport United 2+ goals
32%
Supersport United 3+ goals
11%
Polokwane City 1+ goals
53%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
17%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
65%
Polokwane City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Supersport United scores more
45%
level
31%
Polokwane City scores more
24%

Supersport United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Supersport United vs Polokwane City

Polokwane City beat Supersport United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.