Supersport United 1–1 Moroka Swallows

Supersport United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Moroka Swallows

10/30/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Supersport United45%

×Draw31%

Moroka Swallows25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Supersport UnitedExpected goals in this matchMoroka Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.78

Supersport United

1.16

Moroka Swallows

0.78

Supersport United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 62 away

1.25

creates per match

0.74

0.81

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Supersport United

1.25

Moroka Swallows

0.74

allows per match

Supersport United

0.81

Moroka Swallows

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Moroka Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw

75%

Supersport United or Moroka Swallows

69%

Draw or Moroka Swallows

55%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+

19%

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals

69%

Supersport United 2+ goals

32%

Supersport United 3+ goals

11%

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

54%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

18%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)

64%

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Supersport United scores more

45%

level

31%

Moroka Swallows scores more

25%

Supersport United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff