Supersport United 2–0 Highlands Park FC

Supersport United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Highlands Park FC

12/6/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Supersport United46%

×Draw30%

Highlands Park FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Supersport UnitedExpected goals in this matchHighlands Park FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Supersport United

1.23

Highlands Park FC

0.82

Supersport United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 30 away

1.25

creates per match

0.83

0.81

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Supersport United

1.25

Highlands Park FC

0.83

allows per match

Supersport United

0.81

Highlands Park FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Highlands Park FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw

75%

Supersport United or Highlands Park FC

70%

Draw or Highlands Park FC

54%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+

20%

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals

71%

Supersport United 2+ goals

35%

Supersport United 3+ goals

13%

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

56%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

20%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)

65%

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Supersport United scores more

46%

level

30%

Highlands Park FC scores more

25%

Supersport United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff