Supersport United vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
Supersport United52%
Free State Stars21%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Supersport United creates 78% more chances
Season form · 108 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Supersport United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Supersport United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 108 matches
Free State Stars away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Supersport United attack 1.28 + Free State Stars defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44
Free State Stars attack 0.82 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Supersport United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Supersport United host Free State Stars on Wednesday, 25 April 2018 at 17:30. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Premier Soccer League: Supersport United 3–2 Free State Stars
Supersport United beat Free State Stars 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on April 25, 2018.
Goals: T. Mnyamane (10' pen), S. Mthembu (56'), M. Modiba (69'), N. Mobbie (77'), T. Mokoena (90').
The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria, GT).