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Supersport United vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Supersport United
Supersport United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
4/27/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria, GT)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Supersport United34%
×Draw31%
Bidvest Wits34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Supersport United
0.99
Bidvest Wits
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 30 away

creates per match

Supersport United
1.25
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Supersport United
0.81
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw
66%
Supersport United or Bidvest Wits
69%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
66%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+
13%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals
63%
Supersport United 2+ goals
26%
Supersport United 3+ goals
8%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
63%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
26%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)
50%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Supersport United scores more
34%
level
31%
Bidvest Wits scores more
34%

Supersport United at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Supersport United vs Bidvest Wits

Supersport United and Bidvest Wits drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria, GT).