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Super Power vs Ubon UMT — FA Cup 2018

Super Power
Super Power
FT
0 – 2
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Super Power18%
×Draw19%
Ubon UMT63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Super Power
1.17
Ubon UMT
2.33

Ubon UMT creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Super Power
1.33
Ubon UMT
1.00

allows per match

Super Power
3.67
Ubon UMT
1.00

finishing

Super Power+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Power ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Super Power or draw
37%
Super Power or Ubon UMT
81%
Draw or Ubon UMT
82%

Winning margin

Super Power wins by 2+
7%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Super Power 1+ goals
69%
Super Power 2+ goals
33%
Super Power 3+ goals
11%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
90%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
67%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Super Power (draw refunded)
22%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Super Power at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Super Power attack 1.33 + Ubon UMT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ubon UMT attack 1.00 + Super Power defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Super Power scores more
18%
level
19%
Ubon UMT scores more
63%

Ubon UMT at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Super Power 0–2 Ubon UMT

Ubon UMT beat Super Power 2-0 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.