Super Power 4–1 Prachuap: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Super Power

4 – 1

Prachuap

10/27/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundSamut Prakan Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Super Power16%

×Draw16%

Prachuap69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Super PowerExpected goals in this matchPrachuap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

3.02

Super Power

1.42

Prachuap

3.02

Prachuap creates 113% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

2.38

3.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Super Power

1.33

Prachuap

2.38

allows per match

Super Power

3.67

Prachuap

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Super Power+0.00on par

Prachuap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Power ↓

Prachuap →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Super Power or draw

31%

Super Power or Prachuap

84%

Draw or Prachuap

84%

Winning margin

Super Power wins by 2+

Prachuap wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Super Power 1+ goals

76%

Super Power 2+ goals

41%

Super Power 3+ goals

17%

Prachuap 1+ goals

95%

Prachuap 2+ goals

80%

Prachuap 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Super Power (draw refunded)

19%

Prachuap (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Super Power at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Prachuap away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Super Power attack 1.33 + Prachuap defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Prachuap attack 2.38 + Super Power defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Super Power scores more

16%

level

16%

Prachuap scores more

69%

Prachuap at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff