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Super Power vs Hippo — FA Cup 2018

Super Power
Super Power
FT
0 – 8
Hippo
Hippo
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Super Power30%
×Draw17%
Hippo53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Super Power
2.54
Hippo
3.33

Hippo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Super Power
1.33
Hippo
3.00

allows per match

Super Power
3.67
Hippo
3.75

finishing

Super Power+0.00on par
Hippo+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Power ↓

Hippo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Super Power or draw
47%
Super Power or Hippo
83%
Draw or Hippo
70%

Winning margin

Super Power wins by 2+
16%
Hippo wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Super Power 1+ goals
92%
Super Power 2+ goals
72%
Super Power 3+ goals
46%
Hippo 1+ goals
96%
Hippo 2+ goals
84%
Hippo 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Super Power (draw refunded)
36%
Hippo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Super Power at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Hippo away — creates 3.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Super Power attack 1.33 + Hippo defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Hippo attack 3.00 + Super Power defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Super Power scores more
30%
level
17%
Hippo scores more
53%

Hippo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hippo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Super Power 0–8 Hippo

Hippo beat Super Power 8-0 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.