Super Nova vs Dinamo Rīga / Staicele — 1. Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Super Nova75%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele11%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Super Nova creates 183% more chances
Season form · 42 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Super Nova ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Super Nova at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.90 · 42 matches
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Super Nova attack 2.86 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.91
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.16 + Super Nova defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 75%?"
Super Nova at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 75% does not mean "Super Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Super Nova host Dinamo Rīga / Staicele on Sunday, 13 September 2020 at 16:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga 2026/2027 season.
Super Nova 0 – 3 Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele beat Super Nova 3-0 in 1. Liga on September 13, 2020.
Goals: A. Krasivorons (6'), A. Vorobjovs (19'), A. Mordatenko (48').
The match was played at Olaines stadions in Olaine.