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Super Nova vs Cēsis — Cup 2020

Super Nova
Super Nova
FT
6 – 0
Cēsis
Cēsis
7/18/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundRTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Super Nova78%
×Draw13%
Cēsis9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Super Nova
3.25
Cēsis
1.08

Super Nova creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Super Nova
2.33
Cēsis
0.83

allows per match

Super Nova
1.33
Cēsis
4.17

finishing

Super Nova+0.00on par
Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Nova ↓

Cēsis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Super Nova or draw
91%
Super Nova or Cēsis
87%
Draw or Cēsis
22%

Winning margin

Super Nova wins by 2+
60%
Cēsis wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Super Nova 1+ goals
96%
Super Nova 2+ goals
83%
Super Nova 3+ goals
61%
Cēsis 1+ goals
66%
Cēsis 2+ goals
29%
Cēsis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Super Nova (draw refunded)
89%
Cēsis (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Super Nova at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Super Nova attack 2.33 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.25

Cēsis attack 0.83 + Super Nova defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Super Nova scores more
78%
level
13%
Cēsis scores more
9%

Super Nova at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Super Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Super Nova vs Cēsis

Super Nova beat Cēsis 6-0 in Cup on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.