Sunshine Stars 1–1 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Sunshine Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rivers United

1/19/2023

NPFL · Round 2Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Sunshine Stars51%

×Draw29%

Rivers United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunshine StarsExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.68

Sunshine Stars

1.27

Rivers United

0.68

Sunshine Stars creates 87% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 130 away

1.33

creates per match

0.72

0.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sunshine Stars

1.33

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Sunshine Stars

0.63

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw

80%

Sunshine Stars or Rivers United

71%

Draw or Rivers United

49%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

24%

Rivers United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

72%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

36%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

14%

Rivers United 1+ goals

49%

Rivers United 2+ goals

15%

Rivers United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

72%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more

51%

level

29%

Rivers United scores more

20%

Sunshine Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff