Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rivers United vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
11/5/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 7Yakubu Gowon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Rivers United65%
×Draw25%
Sunshine Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.56
Sunshine Stars
0.45

Rivers United creates 247% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 110 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.68
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Rivers United
0.42
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
90%
Rivers United or Sunshine Stars
75%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
35%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
36%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
79%
Rivers United 2+ goals
46%
Rivers United 3+ goals
21%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
36%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
8%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
86%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.42 · 130 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.68 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Rivers United defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rivers United scores more
65%
level
25%
Sunshine Stars scores more
10%

Rivers United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Rivers United 1–1 Sunshine Stars

Rivers United and Sunshine Stars drew 1-1 in NPFL on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Yakubu Gowon Stadium in Port Harcourt.