Sunshine Stars 4–3 Ikorodu City: Result & Stats

Sunshine Stars

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Ikorodu City

1/25/2025

NPFL · Round 20Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sunshine Stars55%

×Draw27%

Ikorodu City17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunshine StarsExpected goals in this matchIkorodu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.66

Sunshine Stars

1.42

Ikorodu City

0.66

Sunshine Stars creates 115% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

1.33

creates per match

0.68

0.63

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sunshine Stars

1.33

Ikorodu City

0.68

allows per match

Sunshine Stars

0.63

Ikorodu City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Ikorodu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw

83%

Sunshine Stars or Ikorodu City

73%

Draw or Ikorodu City

45%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

28%

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

76%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

41%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

17%

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

48%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

14%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

76%

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more

55%

level

27%

Ikorodu City scores more

17%

Sunshine Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff