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Sunshine Stars vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
U. Anietie 31'
A. Jimoh 78'
12/17/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 14Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sunshine Stars65%
×Draw24%
Gombe United11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.61
Gombe United
0.49

Sunshine Stars creates 229% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
89%
Sunshine Stars or Gombe United
76%
Draw or Gombe United
35%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
36%
Gombe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
80%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
48%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
22%
Gombe United 1+ goals
39%
Gombe United 2+ goals
9%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
86%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
65%
level
24%
Gombe United scores more
11%

Sunshine Stars at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
29'
31'
U. Anietie
74'
75'
78'
A. Jimoh
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sunshine Stars 1 – 1 Gombe United

Sunshine Stars and Gombe United drew 1-1 in NPFL on December 17, 2023.

Goals: U. Anietie (31'), A. Jimoh (78').

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.