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Sunshine Stars vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
5/21/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 18Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sunshine Stars59%
×Draw26%
Akwa Starlets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.47
Akwa Starlets
0.57

Sunshine Stars creates 158% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
86%
Sunshine Stars or Akwa Starlets
74%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
41%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
31%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
77%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
43%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
18%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
43%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
11%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
59%
level
26%
Akwa Starlets scores more
14%

Sunshine Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sunshine Stars 3–0 Akwa Starlets

Sunshine Stars beat Akwa Starlets 3-0 in NPFL on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.