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Sunshine Stars vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
CANC
00:00
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
3/29/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 28Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sunshine Stars72%
×Draw20%
Adamawa United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.84
Adamawa United
0.43

Sunshine Stars creates 328% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
92%
Sunshine Stars or Adamawa United
80%
Draw or Adamawa United
28%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
44%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
84%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
55%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
28%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
35%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
7%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
90%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 113 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.84

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
72%
level
20%
Adamawa United scores more
8%

Sunshine Stars at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sunshine Stars host Adamawa United

March 29, 2020: Sunshine Stars take on Adamawa United in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sunshine Stars host Adamawa United at Akure Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.