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Sunshine Stars vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
1/29/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 4Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Sunshine Stars55%
×Draw27%
Abia Warriors18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.44
Abia Warriors
0.68

Sunshine Stars creates 112% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
82%
Sunshine Stars or Abia Warriors
73%
Draw or Abia Warriors
45%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
28%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
76%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
42%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
18%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
49%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
15%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
76%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
55%
level
27%
Abia Warriors scores more
18%

Sunshine Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunshine Stars vs Abia Warriors

Sunshine Stars beat Abia Warriors 1-0 in NPFL on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.