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Abia Warriors vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
4/16/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 14Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Abia Warriors60%
×Draw26%
Sunshine Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.47
Sunshine Stars
0.54

Abia Warriors creates 172% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 110 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
86%
Abia Warriors or Sunshine Stars
74%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
40%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
31%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
77%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
43%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
18%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
42%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
10%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
82%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
60%
level
26%
Sunshine Stars scores more
14%

Abia Warriors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Abia Warriors 2–0 Sunshine Stars

Abia Warriors beat Sunshine Stars 2-0 in NPFL on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.