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Sunshine Georgies vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
FT
2 – 2
Werribee City
Werribee City
2/17/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sunshine Georgies62%
×Draw19%
Werribee City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Georgies
2.48
Werribee City
1.32

Sunshine Georgies creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sunshine Georgies
2.62
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Sunshine Georgies
1.35
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Georgies ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sunshine Georgies or draw
81%
Sunshine Georgies or Werribee City
81%
Draw or Werribee City
38%

Winning margin

Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
41%
Werribee City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
92%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
70%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
44%
Werribee City 1+ goals
73%
Werribee City 2+ goals
38%
Werribee City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
76%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Georgies at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Georgies attack 2.62 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.48

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sunshine Georgies scores more
62%
level
19%
Werribee City scores more
19%

Sunshine Georgies at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sunshine Georgies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunshine Georgies vs Werribee City

Sunshine Georgies and Werribee City drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.