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Sunshine Georgies vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
FT
0 – 0
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
3/16/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sunshine Georgies47%
×Draw20%
Melbourne Victory II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Georgies
2.27
Melbourne Victory II
1.89

Sunshine Georgies creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sunshine Georgies
2.62
Melbourne Victory II
2.42

allows per match

Sunshine Georgies
1.35
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

finishing

Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Georgies ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sunshine Georgies or draw
67%
Sunshine Georgies or Melbourne Victory II
80%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
53%

Winning margin

Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
28%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
90%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
66%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
39%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
56%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
59%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Georgies at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Georgies attack 2.62 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.27

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.42 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sunshine Georgies scores more
47%
level
20%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
33%

Sunshine Georgies at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sunshine Georgies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sunshine Georgies 0 – 0 Melbourne Victory II

Sunshine Georgies and Melbourne Victory II drew 0-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.