Sunrise 3–0 Etincelles: Result & Stats

Sunrise

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Etincelles

4/22/2023

National Soccer League · Round 24Muvumba Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sunrise48%

×Draw26%

Etincelles26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunriseExpected goals in this matchEtincelles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Sunrise

1.52

Etincelles

1.06

Sunrise creates 43% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 96 away

1.49

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sunrise

1.49

Etincelles

0.95

allows per match

Sunrise

1.18

Etincelles

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunrise+0.00on par

Etincelles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunrise ↓

Etincelles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sunrise or draw

74%

Sunrise or Etincelles

74%

Draw or Etincelles

52%

Winning margin

Sunrise wins by 2+

24%

Etincelles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sunrise 1+ goals

78%

Sunrise 2+ goals

45%

Sunrise 3+ goals

20%

Etincelles 1+ goals

65%

Etincelles 2+ goals

29%

Etincelles 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sunrise (draw refunded)

64%

Etincelles (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunrise at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunrise attack 1.49 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Etincelles attack 0.95 + Sunrise defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sunrise scores more

48%

level

26%

Etincelles scores more

26%

Sunrise at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sunrise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff