Sundsvall W 1–3 Häcken II W: Result & Stats

Sundsvall W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Häcken II W

7/1/2023

Elitettan · Round 13NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sundsvall W43%

×Draw25%

Häcken II W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sundsvall WExpected goals in this matchHäcken II W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.34

Sundsvall W

1.57

Häcken II W

1.34

Sundsvall W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

0.92

creates per match

1.06

1.63

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Sundsvall W

0.92

Häcken II W

1.06

allows per match

Sundsvall W

1.63

Häcken II W

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sundsvall W+0.00on par

Häcken II W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sundsvall W ↓

Häcken II W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sundsvall W or draw

67%

Sundsvall W or Häcken II W

75%

Draw or Häcken II W

57%

Winning margin

Sundsvall W wins by 2+

21%

Häcken II W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sundsvall W 1+ goals

79%

Sundsvall W 2+ goals

46%

Sundsvall W 3+ goals

21%

Häcken II W 1+ goals

74%

Häcken II W 2+ goals

39%

Häcken II W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sundsvall W (draw refunded)

57%

Häcken II W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sundsvall W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Häcken II W away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sundsvall W attack 0.92 + Häcken II W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Sundsvall W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sundsvall W scores more

43%

level

25%

Häcken II W scores more

33%

Sundsvall W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sundsvall W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff